Forecasts
Information
The forecast and recommendations will be based on the chain of information displayed below. We will invoke the signs in nature, the data from soil moisture sensors, previous month's forecast and recommendations, as well as the forecasts from the weather service. Each month we update with new recommendations based on the retrieved data.
Sensor data
Sensor data is collected at six different locations, at two different sites (Mokwakwaila and Lambani), to align with the models for the two river catchments (Letaba and Luvuvhu, respectively). More information on the sensors is given here.
Signs in nature
Signs in nature are observations that local people use to predict upcoming conditions. They can forecast local weather events by interpreting the behaviour and conditions of plants, animals, insects and meteorological and astronomical phenomena (such as wind, rain, stars and the moon). More information on signs in nature is given here.
Graphical overview and template
We will provide the data in a graphical form for easy access and ways to illustrate active/missing data. By clicking each item, more information can be retrieved. The graphical overview may look like below.
Explanation of indicators
In the forecasts, we will present rainfall, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and river flow. If you want information on methods of calculations and hydrological models, follow this link [TBD].
Rainfall
If the amount of rainfall is much higher than normal, this might have negative consequences, e.g. for health of people and animals, as well as for housing and might cause erosion. If the amount of water is much lower than normal, this might cause decreased crop yields and limit availability of water for irrigation of house gardens.
Evapotranspiration
If the amount of water that leaves the soil by transpiration from plants and evaporation from the soil is below normal this can limit growth and might eventually be a sign of wilting.
Soil moisture
If the amount of soil moisture is lower than normal, this might have negative consequences for crop growth, as well as for animal grazing. Too high soil moisture might cause water logging and thereby damage to crops, if soils not are well-drained.
River flow
If the amount of river runoff is much higher than normal, this might have negative consequences, e.g. for flooding. If the amount of river runoff is much lower than normal, this might cause problems with access to water for people and cattle, as well as for irrigation and, e.g. washing clothes.
Data
All files with data are shared and found here.
2013
The list below compiles the forecasts for 2013. Both Luvuvhu and Letaba data are found here.
2014
The list below compiles the forecasts for 2014. Both Luvuvhu and Letaba data are found here.
2015
The list below compiles the forecasts for 2015. Both Luvuvhu and Letaba data are found here.
2016
The list below compiles the forecasts for 2016. Both Luvuvhu and Letaba data are found here.
